Heavy rain potential for Central Gulf Coast, Florida mid week

Good Evening everyone, an upper level low system will move out of Mexico on Tuesday, heading across the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and then into Florida on Thursday. Light to Moderate rain will occur thanks in part to this upper level low along the Texas coast and then into portions of southern and central Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Heavier rain will occur along the LA, MS, and AL coastlines along with most of the state of Florida. These areas could see 1-3 inches or more of rain and may see the potential for flash flooding. Stay with us as we continue to monitor this potential heavy rain event primarily for Wednesday PM and Thursday.

Snow possible for portions of North Texas on Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning

Good afternoon everyone, this is my initial outlook for Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning. A re-enforcing cold front will move into North Texas on Monday Night and into Tuesday, meanwhile, an upper level trough will swing into the Midwest by Tuesday afternoon. Thanks to this, lift will begin spreading over the Southern Plains, across West Texas and the Panhandle of Texas. As Tuesday Night goes on, temperatures will fall across North Texas, with temperatures below 32 generally NW of the DFW metroplex and temperatures between 32 and 35 in the metroplex. The band of precipitation over West Texas will push into North Texas by early Wednesday Morning, with ALL snow falling over areas below freezing and a rain/snow mix for areas between 32-35, in the southeastern portions of North Texas, I am presently anticipating temperatures to be above 35 by the time this precipitation arrives, however, uncertainty remains in place as this event is still 5 days away, as more model data comes in I will continue to refine this forecast, thus I anticipate that these lines will continue to shift until the actual event begins. I cannot presently put out my thoughts on accumulations as it is simply too far out, but it does appear that accumulations and impacts SHOULD be light, however, if QPF increases things may change. Stay tuned for future updates. - Taylor Weiss.

Light wintry precipitation possible in North Texas late tonight and tomorrow.

Tonight, a weak disturbance will come into Texas from Mexico along with a weak cold front from Oklahoma. As moisture begins to move into North Texas, some light wintry mix will initially form south of I-20, some of this may spread into the DFW Metro by the rush hour tomorrow morning, however no significant travel problems are expected, but it doesn't take much ice to make North Texas roads crazy. If humidity values go up enough we MAY have to deal with a bit of freezing drizzle, but I will cross that bridge when it comes up. Speaking of bridges, remember, bridges and overpasses are always the first to freeze over! Check the graphic above for more on timing and impacts in your area, more freezing rain will move in by Saturday Night, and I will have a post about that tomorrow.

Wintry Precipitation likely across Northern portions of the South, possible farther south

Note: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY exists on exact precip type particularly in the pink and orange areas, the precipitation is much more likely in Texas and Louisiana than it is in Mississippi and Alabama. Going on, a shortwave and another weaker cold front will move through Friday and Saturday across Texas and then eventually into Louisiana. A band of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will develop over Texas, moving slowly to the ENE into Louisiana by Friday Night, and then possibly into central portions of Mississippi and Alabama late Friday Night. It is very difficult to pinpoint where this band will move as the shortwave will not be very strong. Accumulations and impacts will not be determined for at least another 2 days, and residents of these areas should be prepared for changes to this forecast.

Arctic Blast likely next week, uncertainty on how far south it will go.

Here is my initial outlook map on the expected Arctic blast next week. Right now, it looks like the arctic cold front will stall just north of the gulf coast, at least that's what the models are showing as of now. However, models have a history of underestimating these types of cold fronts. The Purple area is most likely to see this arctic blast, with high's from the upper 30's in the Panhandle to upper 40's along the cold front. Farther south, it is unclear if the arctic cold front will even make it... but I expect high's in the 50's and 60's in that zone with low's in the 40's and 50's. As for wintry precipitation, I am not presently expecting any across the South, this should be a dry front, I will monitor to see if any wintry precipitation comes in play. Stay tuned. - Taylor Weiss.

Heavy rains to soak North Texas Monday through Thursday

Good afternoon everyone, the data remains good... and heavy rain continues to be expected Monday through Thursday, especially on Tuesday.

Here is the latest accumulated precipitation forecast from the GFS for Monday through Thursday AM. It shows anywhere from about one to four inches of rain across North Texas. Heavy rain will likely be the most widespread on Tuesday as a slow moving band or waves of heavy rain moves across the region. As much as 3 inches will likely fall on this day alone. In addition to the rain. high temperatures will be in the 60's or lower 70's all of next week... with cloudy skies with occasional rain continuing all the way through the weekend. Enjoy the sunny weather today and tomorrow, it likely won't be back until after next weekend.

Heavy rain to march across the South Monday through Friday.

Starting Monday and lasting through Friday, rain will march across the south. Starting on Monday, much of West and parts of Central Texas will see rain, which will be steadily increasing in intensity and the system gains moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. By Tuesday, a combination of Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture will cause a large band of heavy rain to form over much of Texas and parts of the ArkLaTex. Wednesday this band will move farther east losing some of the pacific moisture but gaining Atlantic Moisture, the band will be over the ArkLaTex and over the Mississippi Delta at this point. On Thursday, the band will cover much of Mississippi and Alabama losing much of its Pacific moisture, the band will be a bit lighter but still covering most of the area. On Friday it will move over the rest of Alabama and parts of the FL Panhandle, finally lifting out of the area giving way to cool temperatures and sunshine.
Here is our detailed outlook on rain chances and intensity: