Severe Weather likely Monday Morning in North Texas.

Good evening everyone, as posted earlier today, severe weather continues to look likely by Monday Morning across North Texas. This severe weather is presently expected in the form of a squall line which is now expected to move through the area from around 1 AM in the northwest to 9 AM in the far SE counties.

Before I begin the main update, here is a basic summary:
- Severe Weather is expected Monday Morning between 1 and 9 AM
- A squall line will sweep across North Texas during this timeframe
- The main threats are damaging winds to 80 mph, isolated tornadoes, and hail to the size of golf-balls
- This is a serious situation, please share with everyone you know.
Now for the main update:

NW counties ( 1 AM - 4 AM) :

Initially, the squall line will develop in Northwest Texas, however it will move quickly and should enter the NW counties by 1 AM, here is an image of the squall line as depicted by the NAM-HIRES:

This is the NAM-HIRES at 36 hours out, or 1 AM Monday Morning. You can see the intense squall line is just about to enter Jack and Montague counties, at this point based on reflectivity alone the line would be producing winds of 60 to 75 mph, hail to the size of half-dollars, and heavy rainfall. Due to the amount of shear presently forecasted, isolated tornadoes would also be possible along this line. It's also interesting to note this particular run of the model is showing isolated cells ahead of the line, these would have a higher hail and tornado risk than the line itself. 

Central, SW, and NE counties (4-7 AM):

The squall line will continue it's SE trek through the pre-dawn hours of Monday and will be pushing into the metro along with the NE and SW counties of North Texas. Here is the NAM-HIRES image:

You can see a large squall line which has several individual cells within it, this is a very intense squall line despite it's ragged appearance with multiple supercells within this line. I would say that within this line, isolated tornadoes, damaging winds to 80 mph, and hail to the size of golf-balls would all be possible. It's also again important to nice the individual cells ahead of the line, although they don't look super powerful on this image they would still have the highest chance of producing a tornado or larger hail. Heavy rain is definitely going to occur with this line, Rainfall could be as much as 3 inches with this line, but it should generally be about 1/2 inch to 1 1/2 inches of rain. Flash flooding is not a huge concern but it may briefly happen in low lying areas. 

SE and Southern counties ( 6 AM to 9 AM): 

By this time the individual cells would be out of our coverage area, but the squall line will still be an issue... with multiple supercells within the line itself. Here is the NAM-HIRES forecasted squall line position at 7 AM Monday Morning:

You can see the line is certainly very intense at this point and I would estimate that the line will be producing damaging winds of up to 80 mph, hail to the size of golf-balls, and isolated tornadoes. Again these won't be the large, long track tornadoes that frighten people so much... but these types of tornadoes can still cause major wind damage and can still cause significant damage to buildings like mobile homes and sheds. Sturdy buildings can also face moderate damage from damaging winds and isolated tornadoes like the ones we are expecting Monday Morning. 

By 10 AM... the line will be out of the area and skies will rapidly clear, leading to a sunny and mild afternoon and evening!

Please share this update with everyone you know in order to inform them of this threat. 

- Taylor Weiss.