Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible tonight across North Texas.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible tonight across North Texas. 

Good evening everyone, it's only been a couple days since the last severe weather event in North Texas, but severe weather is once again possible in North Texas tonight. Much of the area is in some kind of drought with the DFW Metro now in an Exceptional drought (D4) which is the highest level of drought possible on the drought monitor. The HRRR seems optimistic that the western and far northeastern counties of North Texas will get rain tonight... but does not give any rain to the Southeastern counties and the metroplex. Let's have a look:

The image above is for 1:30 AM tonight with storms located across Palo Pinto, Erath, and Parker counties…you will also note a squall line located in southeastern Oklahoma, more on this in the next image.

This image shows the simulated radar at 3:15 AM in the morning, at this point the squall line will be pushing through Lamar county and the western band will be moving SE into Bosque and Hill counties,…it is very important to remember that while this model is accurate, it is Not perfect and could easily be off by several miles.

This image from the National Weather Service in Fort Worth helps spell out timing and location a bit better… Around Midnight the storms will begin in the NW counties of our coverage area, by 3 A.M these rain chances will shift towards the S.E extending over the metro, SW counties, and N.E counties… in the pre-dawn hours the best rain chances will be primarily from I-20 and points to the south, with rain chances shifting to Henderson, Hill, and Navarro counties and points to the S.E by the time the morning commute begins. These rainfall totals will not be significant, but any amount helps.

Finally… there is a risk that some of the storms tonight could become severe with hail up the size of quarters the main risk, heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning also potential threats. Again the main timeframe is midnight (NW) to 8 AM ( SE) Stay with DFW Stormwatch as the latest watches and warnings will be posted automatically and sign up for automatic text and/or email alerts when a watch or warning is issued for your county here: http://southlakestormteam.com/text-alerts/