Monday, October 6, 2014

Tropical troubles incoming for the Gulf of Mexico next week?

Good evening everyone, before I proceed with this update it is imperative to note that any given solution at this time is LOW confidence and thus it should be noted that things could easily change and likely will, unlike with the August event however I will not be posting model images out of respect for the viewers. So, let's talk about the timeline and some key model differences...
- The GFS model, also known as the American model... shows a low quickly developing into a tropical depression or storm in 3 to 5 days, or in other words, by this weekend. The GFS has been very consistent in developing this potential system into a tropical storm this weekend, for several runs now in fact.
- The EURO model keeps anything that tries to develop weak and quickly carries it out to the west.
- In essence, the GFS does not know where it goes after it actually develops, some runs have taken it towards Florida, others towards the northern Gulf coast, and still others have taken it towards Mexico, IF it does develop it's hard to say where it may go.
Finally... this map shows an approximate area of development IF development is to occur this weekend it will happen in this box, it could then move in any direction ( except south and east).

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